From the WSJ (EPA Seeks to Boost EVs With Toughest-Ever Rules on Tailpipe Emissions):

The Biden administration is proposing new limits on vehicle tailpipe emissions, seeking to spur U.S. auto makers to generate two-thirds of their sales through electric vehicles in a decade.

The new standards for light-duty vehicles, announced Wednesday by the Environmental Protection Agency, will apply to the 2027 to 2032 model years. They would be the nation’s toughest-ever restrictions on car pollution and one of President Biden’s most aggressive moves yet to combat climate change.

The proposal moves beyond Mr. Biden’s ambitious target for half of all new-vehicle sales to be electric-powered by 2030. The EPA projects that the EVs could account for 67% of new- vehicle sales by the 2032 model year. …

The EPA estimated that the benefits of the proposal would exceed costs by at least $1 trillion. The proposal is expected to avoid 7.3 billion tons of carbon-dioxide emissions through 2055, EPA Administrator Michael Regan said.

Does anyone know where I can find that benefit-cost analysis? I'm wondering what social cost of carbon estimate they are using, among other things. The Google didn't help. 

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  1. Ironman Avatar

    According to EE News, it may be $190/ton (assuming they’re using the 2020 emission year and a Ramsey discount rate of 2.0%). Here’s an article from last month indicating it was coming:
    https://www.eenews.net/articles/why-epas-huge-social-cost-of-carbon-might-fail-to-halt-co2/
    The figure itself can be found in the following draft report from November 2022:
    https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-11/epa_scghg_report_draft_0.pdf

  2. Andrew Wilson Avatar

    The cost-benefit summary is in Table 6 in the proposed rule (https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2023-04/lmdv-multi-pollutant-emissions-my-2027-nprm-2023-04.pdf)
    As noted on p. 510 of the rule, the SC-GHG values used come from the Feb. 2021 TSD (https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2021/02/TechnicalSupportDocument_SocialCostofCarbonMethaneNitrousOxide.pdf)—noted there in Table ES-1. These are lower than the values suggested by the most recent proposed rules (https://www.epa.gov/system/files/documents/2022-11/epa_scghg_report_draft_0.pdf; Table A.4 on p. 120).

  3. John C. Whitehead Avatar
    John C. Whitehead

    Awesome! Thanks to both of you.

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