From E&E News (DOE: Major LNG project ‘would not increase’ CO2) from June 2022: 

A proposed liquefied natural gas project in Alaska would not raise greenhouse gas emissions, according to a new federal environmental review that assumes LNG exports elsewhere will continue to meet demand even if the planned pipeline and terminal aren’t built. …

The Department of Energy’s draft SEIS includes a life-cycle analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions tied to the project’s LNG exports. It finds that “exporting [liquefied natural gas] from the North Slope would not increase GHG emissions when providing the same services to society,” as the No Action Alternative, a scenario where the Alaska LNG project is not developed.

If you don't believe E&E news then here is the screenshot:

LNG

So, as asserted earlier, this isn't how markets work. In the no action alternative supply and demand don't move and there is no change in price or quantity of liquidfied national gas (LNG). With a new LNG facility the supply curve shifts to the right and the quantity of LNG increases (and price falls):

Inelastic_D

If there is no climate impact from the increase in LNG supply as the DOE report claims then either (1) buyers want the same amount no matter the price (i.e., the demand curve is vertical) or, (2) in the no action scenario, someone else magically increases the supply of LNG. Here is how the EPA puts the second scenario in their comment letter: 

EPAletter

Hat tip: Patrick Walsh in response to this post: link.  

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  1. Peter Dorman Avatar
    Peter Dorman

    I agree that the DOE econ is bad, but not for this reason. Simple S&D assumes that there is no collusion and that agents on the supply side are purely profit-maximizing. In energy, collusion is widespread and decision-makers are often sovereigns with complex motives, including revenue smoothing under conditions of credit constraints.
    What’s really obtuse at DOE is the failure to see that, if the US ever adopts a serious climate mitigation program, approving this project will simply produce one more stranded asset. And it’s not like there’s a dearth of discussion about stranded assets.
    From a political economy point of view, every investment of this sort creates or expands a vested interest in not having an effective program that will result in the asset being stranded.
    Do you agree?

  2. John C. Whitehead Avatar
    John C. Whitehead

    I don’t disagree with the stranded assets problem.
    And, I wonder why you don’t think DOE is using bad economics in assuming GHGs won’t change with or without this project.

  3. Peter Dorman Avatar
    Peter Dorman

    I think it would take more careful modeling than I’m up for right now, but it’s plausible additions to the supply from the US might be offset at the margin by less production elsewhere. It’s complicated, of course. Is there a literature on the price effects of previous supply increments?

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