| (114) Shutting Down the Thermohaline Circulation |
| David Anthoff, Francisco Estrada and Richard S. J. Tol |
| Past climatic changes were caused by a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation. We use results from experiments with three climate models to show that the expected cooling due to a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation is less in magnitude than the expected warming due to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. The integrated assessment model FUND and a meta-analysis of climate impacts are used to evaluate the change in human welfare. We find modest but by and large positive effects on human welfare since a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation implies decelerated warming. |
| Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials |
| (115) A Potential Disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet: Implications for Economic Analyses of Climate Policy |
| Delavane Diaz and Klaus Keller |
| The Earth system may react in a nonlinear threshold response to climate forcings. Incorporating threshold responses into integrated assessment models (IAMs) used for climate policy analysis poses nontrivial challenges, for example due to methodological limitations and pervasive deep uncertainties. Here we explore a specific threshold response, a potential disintegration of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS). We review the current scientific understanding of WAIS, identify methodological and conceptual issues, and demonstrate avenues to address some of them through a stochastic hazard IAM framework combining emulation, expert knowledge, and learning. We conclude with a discussion of challenges and research needs. |
| Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials |
| (116) The Ecosystem Impacts of Severe Warming |
| Robert Mendelsohn, Iain C. Prentice, Oswald Schmitz, Benjamin Stocker, Robert Buchkowski and Benjamin Dawson |
| This paper uses a quantitative dynamic ecosystem vegetation model to explore the potential impact of warming up to 9-12 degrees C on global ecosystems. The paper does not find evidence of a global collapse in terrestrial ecosystems but there is evidence of substantial changes. Temperate and tropical forests expand and replace boreal forests and forests shift to woodlands and parkland at high temperatures. Net primary productivity and standing forest biomass per hectare rise. These changes will affect dependent animal species. Further research is needed to measure the resulting benefits and damages to market and nonmarket services. |
| Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials |
| (117) Economic Effects of an Ocean Acidification Catastrophe |
| Stephen G. Colt and Gunnar P. Knapp |
| We assess the potential magnitude of the economic effects of an ocean acidification (OA) catastrophe by focusing on marine ecosystem services most likely to be affected. It is scientifically plausible that by 2200 OA could cause a complete collapse of marine capture fisheries, complete destruction of coral reefs, and significant rearrangement of marine ecosystems. Upper-bound values for losses from the first two effects range from 97 to 301 billion 2014 dollars per year (0.09 – 0.28% of current world GDP). We argue that aquaculture output would not be reduced, due to the high potential for adaptation by this young industry. |
| Full-Text Access | Supplementary Materials |
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