Sharks are scary to many people. New technologies, like drones, allow beach authorities to notify swimmers when sharks are nearby. So when people are told that sharks are near shore, it changes behavior–even though the likelihood of a shark attack has not changed. The only thing that has changed is the ability to see the sharks. Are swimmers now better off?
“…the likelihood of a shark attack has not changed.”
Huh? Whoa!
When people are being told in this way that sharks are near shore, the odds that sharks are near shore are essentially 100% [unless the drone-masters are lying – just conceivably they’re engaged in a behavioral study ;D ] When there are no drones, or information is otherwise unavailable, the odds that they are present are whatever they are, but almost certainly substantially less than 100%. The odds of being attacked will be different accordingly.
Sure, it’s a contingent or Bayesian probability, but the probably that I will be attacked given that sharks are known/verified to be present is higher than on a randomly chosen day when that is not a given so that in fact they might or might not be present.
Kind of like if I cross a non-busy street when I know a bus is nearly upon me, then there’s an excellent chance that I’ll die, but if I cross it at a randomly chosen time, there’s “only” a more modest chance that I’ll die. So in real life I’ll check first to see whether a bus or other vehicle is nearly upon me.
In other words information is useful, at least if it’s the right information.
No?
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