From the inbox:

My name is [name], and I am a reporter with the [paper] in [place]. I am working on a story about the low gas prices, and have been interviewing businesses and individuals about impact, etc. I also wanted to talk to an economist, or economics professor, from ASU to give me some expert opinions on how long the low prices are sustainable, why they are so low in laymen's terms, and what the long-range prediction is, based on your expertise.

Feel free to e-mail me your response with any quotes  you want to throw in. However, if you wish to respond my phone, my digits are [number].

I look forward to hearing from you soon!

Thanks, [initials]

My reply:

[name],

It has all been demand and supply. The shale oil boom has increased world oil supply. Production in North American [sic] has increased by about 33% and world oil production has increased by 5% since 2010. But the larger factor has been demand. There has been a decrease in global oil demand as world GDP growth rates have fallen from 4% to 2% over the past four years. I expect low prices into 2016.

Hope this helps!

John Whitehead

P.S. Here are some links:

Production (EIA): International Energy Statistics
Consumption and Prices (EIA): What drives crude oil prices?
GDP growth: World Bank

What did I get wrong? Besides trying to answer the question. 

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  1. Rene Salinas Avatar

    You missed the market share dynamics. Because the US share has increased, the Saudi’s are afraid of permanently losing their clout. Since shale oil is more expensive to extract, the Saudi’s forced the price down by keeping supply high to decrease the growth of shale. It is working, thousands of people have already been laid off as companies try to offset the loss in profits…
    Then again, I have never had an economics class. All my economics knowledge comes from reading this blog and drinking beer with you… not sure what that says….
    BTW, I like like the reporter differentiated “economist” from “economics professor”….

  2. Chris Weaver Avatar

    So, the recent statement by the OPEC secretary-general warning about $200 a barrel prices: warning to keep R&D and discovery spending from dropping too low or an attempt at changing expectations to get prices to go up? I keep looking at what is causing the current drop in prices and thinking “I don’t see any clear pathway to $200 a barrel even if OPEC did stop searching for new deposits.”

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