Environmental Economics

The cromulent economics blog

recent posts

About the authors

Is the fracking industry shaking in their boots?

The oil and gas industry, governments, environmental advocacy groups and others are watching to
see whether a series of earthquakes in northeastern Ohio was caused by a nearby fracking
operation.

The Ohio Department of Natural Resources
ordered a drilling company to shut down a well in Mahoning County while
officials examine seismic and geological data, but the agency said it can’t say whether fracking
set off the five temblors felt near the Pennsylvania border on Monday and Tuesday.

via www.dispatch.com

To date the fracking debate in Ohio has centered around an insurance problem: is the risk of contamination from fracking quantifiable and if so, can energy companies insure successfully against the known risk.

Now that Ohio is the epicenter (see what I did there?) of the fracking/earthquake causation/correlation question, I sense the debate turning to a precautionary principal debate: Is the small risk of a catastrophic event worth even trying?

Posted in
  1. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    it’s almost implausible that anything other than the fracking operation caused those quakes in Mahoning County, an area which hadnt seen seismologic activity before fracking related activities started there…furthermore, the quakes were at a depth of 2 km to 2.5 km, exactly the same depth as the utica shale in eastern ohio; that depth is not normal for earthquakes – if you check current earthquakes at USGS at any time, you’ll see the record shows most (except in drilling areas of oklahoma) are at a depth of 10 to 100 km, with some deeper ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/ )
    these facts were known to the ODNR when they halted fracking operations within 12 hours after the 2nd quake…it’ll be interesting to see how they untangle themselves and the industry they represent from this dilemma…

    Reply
  2. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    sources: http://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/ld60034308#summary
    http://geosurvey.ohiodnr.gov/portals/geosurvey/Energy/Utica/UticaShale_WellPrototype_diagram.pdf

    Reply
  3. Zappa2496 Avatar
    Zappa2496

    While that part of Ohio doesn’t have much of a seismic history, it isn’t completely devoid of one. A magnitude 4.9 earthquake occurred in the area on January 31, 1986. In general, fracking doesn’t create earthquakes all by itself, it makes an area that is already prone to earthquakes more likely to have them (or at least that has been the findings of both the state geologic services of Arkansas and Oklahoma). Further, it does seem to increase the maximum possible magnitude of earthquakes in a location.
    One possible research project might be to use HAZUS-MH (a program created to estimate damage due to different natural disaster scenarios by adjusting the location and severity of the natural disaster) and the new research on earthquakes and fracking to do a cost/benefit analysis of fracking based on the increased seismic threat.

    Reply
  4. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    i lived through that earthquake on January 31, 1986, which shut down the nearby Perry nuclear plant, & also cracked my chimney, costing me over $2000 in repairs…
    here's the abstracts of two papers from the journal Geology connecting that 1986 quake to nearby brine injection wells, from conventional gas drilling:
    http://geology.geoscienceworld.org/content/16/8/739.abstract
    http://bssa.geoscienceworld.org/content/78/1/188.abstract

    Reply
  5. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    by the way, just last week, the USGS definitively connected the 5.7 and smaller earthquakes of November 2011 in Oklahoma to injection well disposal of wastewater from oil and gas drilling:
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/11/energy-earthquake-oklahoma-idUSL2N0M80SP20140311

    Reply
  6. Zappa2496 Avatar
    Zappa2496

    That’s been the big question: is it the fracking itself, or the related injection wells. The link between earthquakes and injection wells are near certain. The evidence that fracking (not including the injection wells) causes an increase in earthquakes isn’t quite as convincing but is growing.
    As for the seismic history of the area, there are a few faults in the area, most likely stemming from the orogenic activity that formed the Appalachians or the attempted rifting apart that the continent has tried to go through several times. All the evidence I have seen (as I pointed out) is that fracking and injection wells increase seismic activity in areas that are already prone to it, but probably don’t create the hazard itself.

    Reply
  7. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    my source links below show that this weeks earthquakes were at a depth of 2 km to 2.5 km, exactly the same depth as the utica shale in that part of the state, and almost directly below the Hilcorp Energy well pad in the Carbon Limestone Landfill, where they had fracked 7 wells…ODNR has already said there werent injection wells nearby and they should know; they collect tipping fees on them…

    Reply
  8. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    here’s the specs on the first quake: http://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:aNBPvFyG5s0J:earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/eventpage/usc000n691+&cd=2&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=us#summary
    2nd quake linked below..there were 5 quakes over 2 days in that location..

    Reply
  9. Zappa2496 Avatar
    Zappa2496

    Your contention that earthquakes are rare at 2 to 2.5 km is not true. Shallow earthquakes are quite common and are not necessarily related to human activity. Faults in the area, according to the published research, all appear to be the shallow variety, with nothing greater than 10 km in depth.
    A little more research shows 3 earthquakes that occurred in the 1950’s in the area. There have been earthquakes recorded in the late 1800’s only a couple of counties to the west (close enough to be related seismically with earthquakes in Mahoning.
    Finally, I want you to understand that I agree with you that fracking is likely a cause for an increase in seismic activity. My major contentions with your original post were some assertions that aren’t necessarily supported by the data and research.

    Reply
  10. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    i’m familiar with the faults in the area, i wrote about them in the late 80s; there’s the extension of the st lawrence valley rift that cuts along the erie shoreline from niagra to east of cleveland then inland to Anna Ohio, and there’s the akron magnetic lineament, which is a SSW trending quake zone from western Astabula to eastern Summit County…Mahoning County, however, had no quakes of record before the injection well quakes of Christmas & New Years eve of 2011…
    i agree my assertations are all based on circumstantial evidence…but that’s all we have to go on right now…
    here’s a map

    Reply
  11. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    http://geosurvey.ohiodnr.gov/earthquakes-ohioseis/maps-charts-stations/epicenters-map-page-size

    Reply
  12. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    check your google maps;
    fracked wells:
    Carbon Limestone Landfill, Lowellville
    first two earthquake locations:
    41.017°N 80.537°W
    41.009°N 80.532°W
    i make both quakes to be maybe a quarter mile away, certainly less than a half mile from the wells, at roughly the same depth as the Utica Shale

    Reply
  13. rjs Avatar
    rjs

    here you go, Zappa; two posts with major contributions from Dr. Ray Beiersdorfer of the Youngstown State Geology Dept establishing pretty clearly that these quakes were in fact caused by the nearby fracking:
    http://www.nofrackingway.us/2014/03/10/ohios-first-frackquake/
    http://www.nofrackingway.us/2014/03/12/fracking-induced-seismic-events-frackquakes/

    Reply

Leave a Reply

Discover more from Environmental Economics

Subscribe now to keep reading and get access to the full archive.

Continue reading