Once again, I'm reminded to be very careful about what I post here:

Suppose, for a moment, that the people who run your local government really cared enough about you and your fellow citizens to do something that might actually benefit you, by funding a fancy transportation project that could shave 13 minutes off your time while commuting once it's done.

Is it worth it?

The answer, at this point, is "it depends". And honestly, what it depends upon is what your and your fellow commuters' time is really worth.

That's why we've created the tool below, so you can see how much you're saying your time in traffic is worth if the project goes forward! Just enter the indicated data in the tool below, and we'll do the math….

All the default numbers in the tool above are taken from a federally-funded transportation project in North Carolina, which promised to spend $461 million to reduce the travel time of some 100,000 train commuters between Charlotte and Raleigh by 13 minutes a trip, which would bring their one-way transit time down to just under three hours. We then adapted the math developed by John Whitehead for determining the benefit-cost ratio for the project to estimate what value per hour saved per individual that the state's politicians were assigning to the primary declared benefit of the project.

via politicalcalculations.blogspot.com

The tool says that the NC project implicitly values commuter time at $638/per hour. 

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  1. kschoengold2 Avatar

    Interesting calculator, but it seems like it’s assuming 1 trip/person/year (maybe 100,000 person-trips is what it is supposed to reflect). It should clarify the need to put people-trips per year. If the 100,000 people commute about 220-240 days per year, it makes the project much more cost-effective.

  2. John Whitehead Avatar

    the 100,000 number is “ridership” so I think the number is person-trips.

  3. PaulS Avatar

    Mmmm.. the Wiki article lists the latest “ridership” as 162,657. So that’s $2835 per annual (one-way) “rider”, or a Federal tab of $5670 per actual person since almost everyone will go home again. I speculate that in 10-20 years they’ll want to spend another $461 million, so each person might be receiving a subsidy of somewhere between $283 and $567 per round trip. And that’s not including the “operating” subsidy which is typically huge for these things. According to the NCDOT site, the fare is “as low as” $28 one-way, or $56 round trip. They might be getting 15% to 30% from the fare box, so I suppose the operating subsidy to be around $200 for the round trip.
    A person could drive the 340 miles alone for maybe $185, with any who pair up paying half that apiece, etc. And that’s using a total cost per mile as given by AAA. Almost everyone will want to have a car anyway, so it’s more sensible to use their marginal cost, which might be $80 (insurance and rust being quasi-fixed costs that one pays whether one drives the car very much or not.)
    So remind me:

    why does that boondoggle of a line exist at all???

    Especially since I usually take North Carolina to be a “conservative” state on the whole.

  4. AdamBailey9640 Avatar

    In the UK we have a similar issue about the benefits of a proposed high-speed rail link between London and Birmingham. A key point that has emerged is the extent to which rail passengers (aided by laptops, wifi, etc) use their time productively. To the extent that they do, time saved may not be a real benefit.
    See for example http://www.guardian.co.uk/uk/2011/jun/21/business-case-hs2-rail-link-questioned.

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