Answer: They are all univited (and unwanted?) guests in U.S. ecosystems.  That, and they're all Asian.  But I'm sticking with the invasive species angle.

Ohio officials have long considered the Asian carp a dire threat to Lake Erie’s $10 b illion-a-year tourism and fishing industries. Concerns have grown since 2009, when DNA tests indicated the fish had slipped past a Chicago-area electric barrier meant to keep them out of Lake Michigan.

The carp eat most of the food that native fish rely on. Some specimens can weigh as much as 50 pounds.

“The key is to stop them before they get in, and that’s why these physical barriers are so important,” said David Ullrich, the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence Cities Initiative director. “We need a higher degree of certainty.”

Ohio government leaders, including Gov. John Kasich, express support for the barriers but are concerned about funding the project.

Kristy Meyer, clean-water director for the Ohio Environmental Council, said the risk justifies the expense.

“One out of every 10 jobs on the lake is supported by tourism,” Meyer said. “That’s all at risk."

via www.dispatch.com

Just a quick back-of-the-envelope calculation to see if the risk justifies the expense:  The proposed barrier costs $3,000,000,000.  My quick calculation is there are roughly 300,000 people employed in Ohio Lake Erie bordering counties who are not employed in Cleveland or Toledo (I'm ruling out urban jobs as they are unlikely to be affected by loss of tourism).  If 1 in 10 of those jobs are at risk, and Ohio's portion of the cost of is 50%, then we are talking about $50,000 in expense per job loss prevented ($1,500,000,000/30,000).  Worth it?  You be the judge.

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  1. rjs Avatar

    catch the carp & make fishsticks…im sure they could sell them at mcdonalds…

  2. David Rankin Avatar

    Thanks for your back-of-the-cocktail-napkin, er envelope, analysis. I’m glad this study caught your eye.
    Let use some of their assumptions (to the extent I recall them) and play some more. They assume: benefits start in 2029, continue for thirty years, and the relevant discount rate is 3%. The $3bn is a present value cost.
    So, to go npv positive (in your scenario), each job must throw off more than $50k in present value. Using their assumptions, this means that each job saved must generate about $4,100 in benefits for those 30 years. That falls to about $820/job/year if Ohio’s share is 10% (costs shared equally among states and provinces).
    Is this the right apples-to-apples comparison?

  3. Alandove Avatar

    This calculation also assumes a 100% chance that the barrier will actually work. Even a quick skim of the history of invasive species says that’s way too optimistic.

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