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The cromulent economics blog

Photo Credit: Me (in Omaha, Nebraska–more details later).
An environmental paper in the AER!
Jessoe, Katrina, and David Rapson. 2014. "Knowledge Is (Less) Power: Experimental Evidence from Residential Energy Use." American Economic Review, 104(4): 1417-38.
Imperfect information about product attributes inhibits efficiency in many choice settings, but can be overcome by providing simple, lowcost information. We use a randomized control trial to test the effect of high-frequency information about residential electricity usage on the price elasticity of demand. Informed households are three standard deviations more responsive to temporary price increases, an effect that is not attributable to price salience. Conservation extends beyond pricing events in the short and medium run, providing evidence of habit formation and implying that the intervention leads to greenhouse gas abatement. Survey evidence suggests that information facilitates learning.
via www.aeaweb.org
James Hamilton:
What do recent developments in Iraq imply for the price U.S. motorists should expect to pay for gasoline?
For the last two years I’ve been using a simple summary of the long-run relation (sometimes described as a “cointegrating relation”) between the U.S. retail price of gasoline and the price of crude oil. The relation implies that a $10 increase in the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil is typically associated with a 25 cent increase in the average U.S. retail price of a gallon of gasoline. The relation only captures the long-run tendency, and leaves out seasonal factors that for example brought the price of gasoline temporarily lower this last winter. But since this spring U.S. gasoline prices have moved back in line with what you’d expect given the long-run fundamentals.
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Average retail price of U.S. gasoline (black) and price predicted on the basis of price of Brent crude oil (blue). Black: average U.S. price of retail gasoline, all formulations, in dollars per gallon, weekly Jan 10, 2000 to June 16, 2014 (data source: EIA). Blue: 0.84 plus 0.025 times price of Brent, in dollars per barrel, weekly Jan 7, 2000 to Jun 13, 2014 (data source: EIA).
Here’s a little calculator courtesy of Political Calculations that you can use to get the predicted gasoline price plotted in blue in the graph above. Just enter the current price of Brent to see the implied long-run gasoline price. …
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via econbrowser.com
Paul Krugman:
On Sunday Henry Paulson, the former Treasury secretary and a lifelong Republican, had an Op-Ed article about climate policy in The New York Times. In the article, he declared that man-made climate change is “the challenge of our time,” and called for a national tax on carbon emissions to encourage conservation and the adoption of green technologies. Considering the prevalence of climate denial within today’s G.O.P., and the absolute opposition to any kind of tax increase, this was a brave stand to take.
But not nearly brave enough. Emissions taxes are the Economics 101 solution to pollution problems; every economist I know would start cheering wildly if Congress voted in a clean, across-the-board carbon tax. But that isn’t going to happen in the foreseeable future. A carbon tax may be the best thing we could do, but we won’t actually do it.
Yet there are a number of second-best things (in the technical sense, as I’ll explain shortly) that we’re either doing already or might do soon. And the question for Mr. Paulson and other conservatives who consider themselves environmentalists is whether they’re willing to accept second-best answers, and in particular whether they’re willing to accept second-best answers implemented by the other party. If they aren’t, their supposed environmentalism is an empty gesture.
Let me give some examples of what I’m talking about.
First, consider rules like fuel efficiency standards, or “net metering” mandates requiring that utilities buy back the electricity generated by homeowners’ solar panels. Any economics student can tell you that such rules are inefficient compared with the clean incentives provided by an emissions tax. But we don’t have an emissions tax, and fuel efficiency rules and net metering reduce greenhouse gas emissions. So a question for conservative environmentalists: Do you support the continuation of such mandates, or are you with the business groups (spearheaded by the Koch brothers) campaigning to eliminate them and impose fees on home solar installations?
Second, consider government support for clean energy via subsidies and loan guarantees. Again, if we had an appropriately high emissions tax such support might not be necessary (there would be a case for investment promotion even then, but never mind). But we don’t have such a tax. So the question is, Are you O.K. with things like loan guarantees for solar plants, even though we know that some loans will go bad, Solyndra-style?
Finally, what about the Environmental Protection Agency’s proposal that it use its regulatory authority to impose large reductions in emissions from power plants? The agency is eager to pursue market-friendly solutions to the extent it can — basically by imposing emissions limits on states, while encouraging states or groups of states to create cap-and-trade systems that effectively put a price on carbon. But this will nonetheless be a partial approach that addresses only one source of greenhouse gas emissions. Are you willing to support this partial approach?
via www.nytimes.com
The answer for most conservatives is "no." Not because they don't like these policies, which they don't, but because they don't think climate policy has benefits greater than costs. Now, if conservatives did think that the benefits of climate policy exceeded the costs they would prefer, er, demand, a carbon tax with revenues that offset an income tax cut. And then liberals would be howlling about the unfairness of it all and would be demanding the usual mish-mash of standards and subsidies.
Anyway, why is it "brave" to advocate for policy that is probably less effective and definitely more efficient.
Robert Stavins reviews the RIA:
Given the fundamental economic arithmetic of a global commons problem, it would be surprising – to say the least – if EPA were to find that the expected benefits of the proposed rule would exceed its expected costs, but this is precisely what EPA has found. Indeed, its central estimate is of positive net benefits (benefits minus costs) of $67 billion annually in the year 2030 (employing a mid-range 3% discount rate). How can this be? …
First, EPA does not limit its estimate of climate benefits to those received by the United States (or its citizens), but uses an estimate of global climate benefits.
Second, in addition to quantifying the benefits of climate change impacts associated with CO2 emissions reductions, EPA quantifies and includes (the much larger) benefits of human-health impacts associated with reductions in other (correlated) air pollutants.
Of course, even if benefits exceed costs at the given level of stringency of the proposed rule, it does not mean that the rule is economically efficient, because it could be the case that benefits would exceed costs by an even greater amount with a more stringent or with a less stringent rule. However, if benefits are not greater than costs (negative net benefits), then the rule cannot possibly be efficient, so I will stick with the all-too-common Washington practice and simply ask whether the analysis indicates a winner or a loser at the proposed rule’s given level of stringency. In other words, the question becomes, “Is the proposed rule welfare-enhancing (even if it is not welfare-maximizing)?” …
The combined U.S.-only estimates of annual climate impacts of CO2 ($3 billion) and health impacts of correlated pollutants ($45 billion) greatly exceed the estimated regulatory compliance costs of $9 billion/year, for positive net benefits amounting to $39 billion/year in 2030. This is the key argument related to the possible economic efficiency of the proposed rule from the perspective of U.S. welfare. If EPA’s global estimate of climate benefits ($31 billion/year) is employed instead, then, of course, the rule looks even better, with total annual benefits of $76 billion, leading to EPA’s bottom-line estimate of positive net benefits of $67 billion per year. See the summary table below.
The Obama Administration’s proposed regulation of existing power-sector sources of CO2has the potential to be cost-effective, and if you accept these numbers, it can also be welfare-enhancing, if not welfare-maximizing.
That said, I assume that proponents of the Obama Administration’s proposed rule will take this assessment of EPA’s Regulatory Impact Analysis as evidence of the sensibility of the rule, and opponents of the Administration’s proposed actions will claim that my assessment of the RIA provides evidence of the foolishness of EPA’s proposal. So it is in our pluralistic system (not to mention, in the context of the political polarization that has gripped Washington on this and so many other issues).
Better late than never:
On 12 June the FIFA World Cup kicks off. 32 of the best football teams in the world will start vying for the title of being the best at the biggest sport in the world. In an international survey of about 8,000 people in 15 countries we asked what the World Cup title means to people in the competitors’ home countries. Almost a quarter in our survey is willing to give up their mobile phone for a month if it meant their team would win! Our economists also looked at a range of economic indicators to investigate the World Cup teams and the attitude of their fans. …
1. Spain would prevail if…
If the “value” of all the players in a football team actually could decide the results of the World Cup, Spain would prevail this summer as our analysis shows its squad of 23 has the highest total market value at EUR675 million. Hosts Brazil are third and England seventh, boosted by the EUR49 million value of Manchester United forward Wayne Rooney.
…
4. Argentina is willing to sacrifice the highest sum of money if it meant their team would win.
Chileans top the table on the measure of willingness to sacrifice a sum of money if it meant their team would win. They would be willing to give up EUR526 on average to see their team win. Adjusted for GDP to facilitate a like for like comparison, Argentina rises to the top.
via www.ing.com
Hat tip: Joni Charles
It is always an event when an environmental paper shows up in an AEA journal:
Libecap, Gary D. 2014. "Addressing Global Environmental Externalities: Transaction Costs Considerations." Journal of Economic Literature, 52(2): 424-79.DOI: 10.1257/jel.52.2.424
AbstractIs there a way to understand why some global environmental externalities are addressed effectively, whereas others are not? The transaction costs of defining the property rights to mitigation benefits and costs is a useful framework for such analysis. This approach views international cooperation as a contractual process among country leaders to assign those property rights. Leaders cooperate when it serves domestic interests to do so. The demand for property rights comes from those who value and stand to gain from multilateral action. Property rights are supplied by international agreements that specify resource access and use, assign costs and benefits including outlining the size and duration of compensating transfer payments, and determining who will pay and who will receive them. Four factors raise the transaction costs of assigning property rights: (i) scientific uncertainty regarding mitigation benefits and costs; (ii) varying preferences and perceptions across heterogeneous populations; (iii) asymmetric information; and (iv) the extent of compliance and new entry. These factors are used to examine the role of transaction costs in the establishment and allocation of property rights to provide globally valued national parks, implement the Convention on the International Trade in Endangered Species of Wild Fauna and Flora, execute the Montreal Protocol to manage emissions that damage the stratospheric ozone layer, set limits on harvest of highly-migratory ocean fish stocks, and control greenhouse gas emissions.
via www.aeaweb.org
Highly recommended:
In North Carolina’s northwest corner, seven mountain and foothill counties share far more natural beauty and cultural treasures than anyone could ever explore in one lifetime.
You know the mountains are cool and lovely, and you know they’re out there – somewhere. But until you start looking, you can’t imagine what you’ll find. …
21. Alleghany County
Doughton Park, Blue Ridge Parkway
The parkway can get busy on the weekends around Asheville, Boone and Blowing Rock, but many North Carolinians never make it as far north as 7,000-acre Doughton Park, where the mountain landscape opens up to reveal less forest and more rolling meadows. The North Carolina Birding Trail invites birders to hike with their binoculars, and it points to the special appeal of a spot called Mahogany Rock at the north end of Doughton near Milepost 234. It’s a great place to monitor the migrating streams of hawks, falcons, merlins, eagles and other birds of prey each fall. The National Park Service also has preserved, on its original location, the 1885 Brinegar Cabin that was home to a family of subsistence farmers. If you’re lucky, when you duck inside the cabin door, you’ll meet Jackie Sloop, an interpretive park ranger who grew up in nearby Caldwell County. As she spins wool to be woven with linen into a sturdy fabric called linsey-woolsey, Sloop talks of the challenges faced by Martin and Caroline Brinegar until the National Park Service acquired their cabin for the parkway in 1937. Doughton Park lost major amenities several years ago with the closing of the Bluffs Lodge hotel, a gift shop and restaurant. Luckily, there’s a good restaurant and motel about 3 miles away on N.C. 18 near Laurel Springs, just off the parkway. Freeborne’s Eatery and Lodge has a laid-back vibe that appeals equally to traveling bikers and local families out for Sunday dinner.
The cabin was awesome.
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